2023-2024 NCAA Betting Recap

I finally got around to reviewing some of my betting numbers from this past season, which I'm going to hit on here. I will say that this year was one of the most frustrating betting seasons in recent memory. Countless bets were followed by line movement in my favor and positive CLV, only for the on-court performance to be way outside of a team's norm. However, betting college hoops can be an absolute grind given the variance of three-point shooting, schedule factors, and a multitude of other reasons. Albeit small, I'm happy to have finished in the green across 276 bets being up 11.25 units. If you're interested in looking back at any bets, feel free to glance here. 

Yeah, I'm aware I stink when it comes to CBB totals. A few of those losses weren't even in the same ballpark as the final score and my projected pace. Props were also banned in Ohio midway through the season, so I wouldn't expect to see much of either next year. I did well betting sides, generally not laying more than -120 vig. Moneyline and Parlay bets were slightly profitable and mainly + money or underdog bets.

Derivatives were profitable and definitely something I need to make more of a point to bet going forward. Live bets can be tricky without a model, but pregame knowledge coupled with ShotQuality can be useful tools. Variance is incredibly high in this sport as we often see teams go on 5-10-point runs throughout a game. A consistent live spot to look for is when you like a team pregame but don't see value in the spread. Instead, wait to see if they get off to a slow start and grab a better number within the first few minutes of gameplay.

I also graded out better on favorites. Likely just the nature of the beast over a relatively small sample, although my intuition leans towards betting on good teams after bad losses or tough spots. 

Lastly, we have the Sportsbook comparison, which can be explained relatively easily. Some books, such as BetRivers and Pointsbet limit anyone with a pulse, on top of holding out posting overnight lines. Basically, all season DraftKings was the first to post overnights in Ohio, and as someone looking for early line value, where I'm going to gravitate. FanDuel and BetMGM aren't far behind, particularly as the year carries on so there's no surprise I placed the second and third most bets with them. 

As for the units by book, I noticed FanDuel and Bet365 are more likely to post reasonable moneyline odds (lower hold) and are places to find value. The performance at most other books is a negligible sample size, although I did catch myself frustrated with Caesars and some awful variance games this season.

Albeit a frustrating grind, I'm never going to complain about a profitable season. +11.25 units across 276 bets and going 0-2 on futures is not a terrible year. This is just a quick review but gives anyone following transparency of what goes into handicapping a full college basketball season. I'm going to continue deep diving and improving my process going forward. Pray for us following transfer portal news.