March Variance - MIDWEST and WEST regions

 

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MIDWEST

1. Houston (-19.5) vs Northern Kentucky

8. Iowa vs Auburn (-1)

Marcus Sasser's injury is the #1 element I'm monitoring over the next few days. Houston has tons of athleticism and length. They pressure the ball and attack the offensive glass like crazy. Betting against them is so frustrating because they just don't stop attacking, which winds up with easy buckets off turnovers and offensive boards. A healthy Houston team is, and should be one of the two favorites to make the final four. Despite their athletic makeup, without Sasser they lack the ability to create off the dribble and open looks for the rest of the offense. They also have a flaw, in that because they're so aggressive, they foul a ton. They also play a slow pace with means less possessions. Remember the formula:

Less possessions = more variance

I don't believe any teams in this pod can take advantage of Houston's weaknesses, and every year they physically dominate lesser teams. The metrics might say -19.5 is a little inflated, but the Cougars have demolished mid-major competition (besides Kent State 😉) this year. 

The Iowa Auburn matchup, on the other hand, is pretty intriguing. Auburn presents as an excellent defensive team, particularly defending the arc. If you remember my last post here, the SEC could not shoot a lick in conference play. Iowa is a solid 3 point shooting team who likes to push the tempo. Guards win in March, and the Tiger's guards are... untrustworthy at best... especially away from their home court. 

Iowa is a horrendous defensive team Every year they flourish on offense, suck on defense, and lose early in the tournament. As does almost every team ever with a similar profile. In this matchup, however, they should be able to get to the free throw line and knock down foul shots. I tend to lean Auburn as it's easy to #fadeFran McCaffery, but you'd be just as successful picking the winner by flipping your favorite quarter. Either way Houston should be a sweet 16 team with or without Sasser.

5. Miami (-2.5) vs Drake

4. Indiana (-4) vs Kent State

This pod reminds me of my first crush. I've been infatuated with these teams. Miami has my favorite player in college hoops, Isaiah Wong. His game is so pure, it reminds me of the great DeAllen Jackson (s/o Mount hoops in the D3 Final Four). Wong, Pack, and Miller are a tremendous offensive trio. The problem is Norchad Omier's ankle injury, which I have yet to see an update on. Miami is already an all offense no defense team, and without their best post defender + rebounder that could be even more of an issue. 

Drake, on the other hand, is my Great White Buffalo. I'm in a college basketball group chat that quite literally started because of these Drake Bulldogs a few years ago. Their best player, Tucker DeVries, is a sophomore but for the rest of our boys, this is their last hurrah. I mean look at this roster

Drake feels like a team of destiny. They're well rounded, have solid guards and a serviceable post presence. To expose Miami, especially without Omier, you need to get into the paint and rebound. Given the small point spread, the Bulldogs are the most likely 12 seed to advance. Maybe my inordinate love for Isaiah Wong is holding me back, but I still am, and will continue to be torn on what name to put on the winning line.

*breathes deeply* Indiana is awesome. Trayce Jackson-Davis can be the most dominant player on the floor on any given night. Hood-Schifino is an excellent freshman who's played well down the stretch. and the Hoosiers have the talent to make a deep run. Kent State is a nightmarish matchup for them, however. They defend at all levels while forcing a high turnover rate and bad shots. Underdogs just don't have a ton of value in these matchups anymore, as this is already only a 4 point spread. There's a good chance I end up sprinkling some Kent State moneyline, and may even advance them to at least the round of 32. 

6. Iowa State vs Mississippi St/Pittsburgh

3. Xavier (-11.5) vs Kennesaw State

Iowa St vs Mississippi St would be a miserable, slow paced rock fight. First to 40 wins type of game. Pitt can be fun and push the tempo. I would tend to lean TJ Otzelberger's squad and the Iowa State Cyclones in either matchup. They play great defense, create turnovers and offensive rebounds. Not the greatest shooting team, and without any studs it's hard for me to see a deep run. But this pod is pretty weak and somebody has to make it out.

Awesome job by this Kennesaw State staff to turn this program around. They're athletic and solid in two of the main categories I like; free throw rate and defensive turnover rate. Physically, they should be able to compete here. Unfortunately for them, they are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country (by %). I don't love Xavier's profile, as they're yet another all offense no defense type of team, but Souley Boum and Jack Nunge should be enough to survive this matchup. I would prefer the 6/11 winner advancing to the Sweet 16 however.

7. Texas A&M (-3) vs Penn State

2. Texas (-14) vs Colgate

This 7/10 game is a classic clash between what makes each team successful. A&M forces turnovers, Penn State never turns it over. A&M gets after the offensive glass, Penn State is an excellent defensive rebounding team. A&M thrives by getting to the free throw line, Penn State does not foul. A&M is good at defending the three ball, Penn State sprays threes. I mean look at this

 

Jalen Pickett for Penn State is the best player in the game, and when in doubt take the player you trust the most. I'm leaning Penn State here but can still be swayed either way.

We've seen what Colgate is. They run a great offense, shoot the 3 ball excellent and run a decent pace. They just cannot matchup athletically with bigger programs. Texas is an excellent team on both ends of the floor and should wax this team. They might score every possession. I took Texas at -12.5 and would play it up to -15. I also like their Team Total over (was 82.5 last I saw), and might play an alt line >90 there. 

West region of death

1. Kansas (-22.5) vs Howard

8. Arkansas (-3) vs Illinois

Congrats to Howard on the MEAC title, but the reward is getting smoked by Kansas. The Jayhawks are a balanced team, but can struggle to score for stretches because they rely so heavily on Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick. Howard isn't the team to upset them, but that team exists somewhere in this region.

Illinois is like the island of misfit toys here, while Arkansas are the Commando Elite's who just hit the shelves.

The fighting Illini shoot a ton of threes, while usually missing a ton of threes. Despite guard Terrance Shannon playing at a high level, they're also susceptible to turnover issues. Arkansas has a few stud freshman, who haven't had a ton of time to play together this year. Being able to force turnovers at a high rate, as well as their ability to get to the free throw line should be enough to keep Illinois at bay and give Kansas all they can handle in the round of 32

5. Saint Mary's (-3.5) vs VCU

4. Connecticut (-9) vs Iona

Saint Mary's is well coached and they play at a snails pace, but don't give up anything easy. You have to earn every bucket facing them, which VCU does have the ability to do. And I'm an A-10 stan, but VCU thrives off creating turnovers, where the Gaels do a good job of protecting the ball

Hurley vs Pitino is the matchup we've dreamed about. Uconn's profile looks amazing on both ends of the floor. They have everything you should like in a team. They score at both levels, rebound well, and have size. Their coach just stinks out loud in the tournament. Dan Hurley might shed tears mid game if his team falls behind again. Uconn's biggest flaw is that they're turnover prone. and Iona's defense is 47th in the country in turnover rate. Rick Pitino's squad also has enough size to at least hang with Uconn's great post player in Adama Sanogo. Maybe Iona can pull of the upset, likely not. But I believe Dan Hurley will be the worse coach in every potential matchup, and Uconn's turnover issues will bite them eventually.

6. TCU vs Arizona State/Nevada

3. Gonzaga (-16) vs Grand Canyon

TCU and Mike Miles should roll over either opponent here. Nevada is not good and Arizona State would need a miracle shooting night to stay close. TCU's transition offense is phenomenal and they hound the offensive glass.

I laid the points with Gonzaga at -13.5. I know that number's long gone by now, and I'm not claiming to be some genius, but I've watched this Grand Canyon team play quite a few times and I'm just not impressed. They're just meh on both sides of the ball, and weren't even close to the best team in the WAC all year. Drew Timme should score at will and I doubt GCU keeps making 15+ threes a game. 

TCU vs Gonzaga would be an extremely fun uptempo matchup I hope we get to see. I could see either team winning and making a run, but I'm likely riding with the Horned Frogs 😈

7. Northwestern vs Boise St (-1)

2. UCLA (-18.5) vs UNC Asheville

I've been looking for spots to fade this Boise team all year. I've been right a few times, and looked like a complete fool others. Something about their game doesn't do it for me. They spread the floor and can hit threes. I just don't think they have a guy to consistently get tough buckets late in the shot clock. Boo Buie for Northwestern on the other hand, is exactly that guy. Not a great shooter but he can create off the bounce. Him and Audige should provide enough offense to let their great team defense take over and stifle Boise.

Drew Pember is a great story for UNCA . Kid gets to the foul line as good as anyone in the country. They just have turnover issues and don't rebound or defend the paint well. UCLA is a phenomenal team with tons of experience and a guy who can score in any moment. A few weeks ago I would've said UCLA was my favorite to cut down the nets. Two injuries later, and I still like this team, there are a few more question marks however. The loss of Jaylen Clark is impactful, but I'm more worried about the status of big man Adem Bona. Without him, they can get exposed down low a little. I don't think it'll matter in either matchup here, but something big to monitor going forward.

That's all for now folks. As the great Locky Lockerson recently said, "Make picks that you actually like, because if you follow someone else’s advice totally, and then the thing YOU liked instead happens, you’ll beat yourself up endlessly. And no one wants that. There’s an old saying in horse racing to never talk someone out of a longshot, because if it wins, you’ll never hear the end of it. You like a team to win? Great! Roll the dice and take your chances! At least it’s authentically your opinion, and then whatever happens happens and you’ll be at peace with it. Just don’t have it be solely because someone else said something. It needs to make sense to you." This dump is from my dumb brain, but hopefully gave you a little more insight into this weekend's games. Best of luck with your bets, positive vibes only crew. March is among us!

My bets so far:

Furman +6.5

Texas -12.5

Gonzaga -13.5

Memphis to make Final Four +1800 (FanDuel)

Oral Roberts +6