Shoulda been Memphis

 Florida Atlantic makes the Final Four. Woo. A 9 seed wow so crazy they won a lot of games this year wow. Shoulda been Memphis. 

I have been crying jordan for a week now. Thankfully, I've been riding FAU to the promised land since that fateful day in March.

Also, UConn is a WAGON. Send in the National Guard, they must be stopped.

4 games left and plenty of edges to be found. Let's get back to work. Job's not finished

2:20pm

5 San Diego State vs 6 Creighton (-2)

This is another line that's between 1.5 and 2.5, so shop around. 

I like Creighton here. Really for one main reason. This man:

Ryan Kalkbrenner has been good all year but next level these past three games. 

ShotQuality's most efficient scorer the first two rounds. But it's his defense I love here. Overall, Creighton is 28th nationally in 2 point % defense and gives up close twos at a 32.8% rate. They also take away the three ball well. Not that the Aztecs necessarily thrive on their three point shooting, but with Kalkbrenner defending the paint and taking away threes, Matt Bradley and co are going to consistently be forced into mid range jumpers. i.e the worst shot in basketball. 

Defensively, San Diego State is no slouch physically, as they showed against #1 overall seed Alabama. Generally their pressure defense forces turnovers leading to transition buckets. But between guards Alexander and Nembhard, Creighton's been one of the top teams at protecting the ball. 

Bluejays have the best player on the court and the 'lytics behind him. Give me Creighton to cover

5:05pm

2. Texas (-4) vs 5 Miami

Always a sad day when one of your futures goes down. At the same time, it is kind of poetic automatically advancing one to the Final Four: 28-1 on Texas and 66-1 on Miami. 

I wrote about Texas' X factor the other day. I guess I was out of the loop because Dylan Disu played about 10 seconds then wore a walking boot the rest of the game. As I'm typing this he's currently listed as Questionable with a left foot bone bruise. He wants to play, and it would be hard to force him to sit. But, if he can't go, the Longhorns' average rebounding ability will be even worse. 

Miami loses when Norchad Omier is held in check on the boards. 

Probably hard to see, I apologize I'm working on that. Some of his worst rebounding performances come in either losses or close games. When Disu sat last game, Texas was undersized and spread the floor well, but suffered defending the paint and on the glass. Yeah they blew out Xavier, but X missed tons of good looks and was an average offensive rebounding team. 

Isaiah Wong and the rest of this Miami roster are excellent at finishing in the paint while being able to spread the floor. I mean, putting up 89 points on that Houston team is very impressive. The Hurricanes are kings of small ball and if Texas is forced to match their style, they're going to get beat down low. 

On a second note, Texas ability to spread the floor without Disu will cause problems for Miami's defense who already struggles defending the rim. Two teams who are more than happy playing at a fast pace that have multiple good guards, and more freedom to attack the rim? Nijel Pack, Isaiah Wong, and Jordan Miller vs Marcus Carr, Sir'Jabari Rice, and Tyrese Hunter is popcorn worthy. I like the over here as well. 

Tournament Record (9-5  +4.1 units)

Sunday's Bets

Creighton -1.5 -110 (Caesars)

Miami +160 (BetOnline)

Miami +4 -110 (BetRivers)

Miami/Texas over 149 -109 (BetRivers)

*Insert Russell Wilson gif*