March Variance - SOUTH and EAST regions

The 68 team field is set, and the good news is that no one has to do any work! As nearly every single college basketball piece will tell you, if a team isn't top 25 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom, they have a next to 0% chance to win the National Championship. 

As cute as the ever popular KenPom fact may be, it has never led to a perfect bracket. My little sister who hasn't watched a college basketball game in ~8 years, is just as likely to predict the perfect bracket as the great Joe Lunardi. 

Instead of searching for perfection, I'm going to give you a few nuggets on each first round + pod and what to expect from each team. As the description says, I'm no expert. Just a guy who watches a ton of hoops. All of my bets are at the bottom. 

Reminder to join my March Madness pool HERE and PAY HERE

(stats from BartTorvik and Haslametrics)

Let's start down SOUTH

1. Alabama (~-25) vs Texas A&M CC/SE Missouri St

8. Maryland vs West Virginia (-2.5)

With wins at Houston, I believe the committee is correct making Alabama the #1 overall seed. 5th in Strength of Schedule, they're #2 in Barttorvik's power ratings with a road win over his #1 team, Houston. Brandon Miller is a future lottery pick and arguably the best player in the country. Him. Mark Sears, and co. present as an excellent defensive team. However, the SEC flat out could not shoot a lick.

SEC 3pt%

They also struggled against teams who slow the tempo down. The winner of the first four game shouldn't present much of an issue, however Maryland does play slow if they can get past the Mountaineers. Unfortunately for the Terrapins, they don't shoot the three ball very well. 

Along with playing slow, Maryland takes care of the ball and is solid defensively. One of the differentiating factors here is the competition of a Big 12 schedule compared to Big 10. WVU played a gauntlet and struggled for a few stretches, but test out well in the advanced metrics. For the sake of advancing, it's a toss up with a slight lean towards WVU, which is in line with the betting market. 

5. San Diego St (-5.5) vs. College of Charleston

4. Virginia (-5) vs Furman

Charleston, along with most 12 seeds, are going to be a trendy upset pick. They spread the floor, play fast and shoot a zillion threes (9th most in the country to be exact). They did benefit from an extremely easy SOS. On the other hand, San Diego State was 10th in SOS but plays in a conference that is historically trash in the NCAA tournament. Their main flaw is going through long stretches of missing shot after shot. If Matt Bradley is cold, they'll lose to anyone. 

Virginia is 360th in tempo (out of 363). They also play a pack line defense, which gives up one of the highest 3 point rates. 

Less possessions = more variance

Although I'm not in love with this Furman team, they shoot threes at an extremely high rate and will arguably have the best player on the floor. Assuming they don't go 5/25 from deep, they'll be in this game with a chance to win until they end.

Less possessions + more 3 pointers = MOAR variance

For my money, this is the weakest 4/5 pod on the bracket. As nightmarish as it may be, I'm trusting a Mountain West team to make it to the second weekend. Btw, I was happy when this came out

6. Creighton (-5) vs NC State

3. Baylor (-11) vs UC Santa Barbara

The analytics have loved Creighton this year, but something is off to me. They're shooting the right shots (threes and layups), playing good d, and have one of the most important players in the country in Ryan Kalkbrenner. They just don't get easy buckets. The Blue Jays are bottom 25th percentile in Turnover Rate, Offensive Reb %, and Free Throw Rate. To me, this profile screams high floor - low ceiling. One off night and they're liable to get blown out. Fortunately, this part of the bracket can be taken advantage of. Kalkbrenner should dominate DJ Burns and NC State doesn't shoot well enough to hang around.

Baylor is awesome on offense. They have three guards, including future lottery pick Keyonte George, who spray from deep. They shoot a ton of threes and have the ability to beat any team in the country. Their problem is defense. They absolutely cannot stop dribble penetration and don't really protect the rim. Initially, I thought the return of JTT would solve some of these problems, but they've been even worse since February 1. UCSB is a solid team and Ajay Mitchell is awesome, but they have the overall guard play to exploit these flaws. 

The variance between Creighton and Baylor on any given night. I'll take Creighton to advance, with hesitancy. 

7. Missouri vs Utah State (-2)

2. Arizona (-14) vs Princeton

If Utah State was in any other conference, I would love this team. They played well in a tough schedule and have shooters all over. Missouri also likes to chuck threes. Their 3 point defensive metrics are likely also slightly inflated due to the SEC's ineptitude to make shots. I'm leaning Big Blue here, and will likely have a play on the over if the total stays below 155. 

I'm looking to fade Arizona, I just don't know if this is the right spot. The Wildcats play a fast pace and are relatively well rounded, but not great at anything in my opinion. If you watched the PAC 12 tourney, Bill Walton would have you thinking Oumar Ballo is Shaquille O'neil. The truth is, he's susceptible to offenses who space the floor where he gets pulled out of the paint. Wouldn't you know if, Princeton is the king of offensive spacing. Arizona has been willing to play smaller, where ultimately I think athleticism takes over The Tigers.

I don't want to say too many positive things about a second Mountain West team, so all I'll say is that Oumar Ballo owes me one after blowing a cover against St. Mary's in 2021 the day before Baker Mayfield lost to Chad Henne in Arrowhead.

The EAST

1. Purdue (-a lot) vs Texas Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson

8. Memphis (-3) vs FAU

AHHHHH I hate this 8/9 matchup. Well, I love the teams, absolutely hate I can only take one to advance. The East region is so weak and winnable, two of the sleeper teams I like the most just had to be matched up in the first round. 

I wasn't particularly happy about it either. Penny Hardaway has his best team clicking and healthy at the right time. They hung with Houston all three matchups, and lost to Alabama by three. Kendric Davis could be the best guard in the country right now, and the rest of this senior class absolutely gets after you on the defensive end. If you can't take care of the ball, you won't win. Fortunately for FAU, they also have excellent guard play. Although they had an excellent season, Memphis' pressure should shock them from the jump.

Purdue and National Player of the Year Zach Edey should easily get past any low major first round team as long as he isn't missing in layup lines. BUT, Purdue struggles a ton with ball pressure. They have young guards who have been susceptible to turnovers the past few weeks. Memphis should take advantage of easy buckets off steals and pressure Purdue out of the tournament. Instead of a game bet, I'm looking to play a Memphis final four future at the best number.

4. Duke (-6.5) vs Oral Roberts

5. Tennessee (-10.5) vs Louisiana Lafayette

Another matchup I'm not happy about. Duke is the hottest team in the country right now, while Oral Roberts is once again one of the most exciting Mid Majors. Max Abmas is HIM. Probably the closest example to gravity in college basketball. Connor Vanover found a niche playing alongside Max, where he only needs to spread the floor. With a similar profile to Baylor, their defense also struggles. Filipowski and Roach should be able to get whatever they want at the rim. A very intriguing matchup

While I don't like this Tennessee team, it's unlikely the Cajun's are the team to exploit them.  Too many of their shots come from the midrange, which is not how you expose the Volunteers. Oral Roberts projects as an incredibly juicy second round dog against Tennessee, but I would also prefer the Blue Devils by a couple possessions. 

6. Kentucky (-3.5) vs Providence

3. Kansas State (-8.5) vs Montana State

One of the pods I am least confident about. I wouldn't be surprised if any one of these four teams is sitting on the sweet 16 line. Kentucky has been better in the ladder half of the season, but both them and Providence are susceptible at the rim. Former player of the year Oscar Tschiebwe has been a liability on the court this year. I'm leaning Kentucky, but have yet to make a decision here.

Montana State can turn you over and they crash the defensive glass but they don't shoot threes particularly well. The good news is they don't shoot a ton of threes, so K. St's top 3 point defense isn't really in play here. I have K. St advancing and ultimately think Keyontae Johnson and company will be able to attack and get Montana St in foul trouble, but still think the Bobcats are live dogs so I'm staying away from betting either side. 

For the sake of being less confident in a Kentucky/Providence winner and wanting points in my bracket, I'm advancing Kansas State. But you might be more successful with picks here by throwing darts at your local board. 

7. Michigan State (-2) vs USC

2. Marquette (-10.5) vs Vermont

I love March Madness. I make tons of brackets every year for fun and every year there's one 8/9 or 7/10 matchup where I pick the same team in every single bracket, for them to inevitably get smoked from the jump. USC over Michigan State is that pick for me this year. On paper these are two very even teams. MSU is just another team who doesn't get easy buckets off turnovers, offensive rebounds, or at the free throw line. If they're not shooting 50% from deep, scoring is an issue. USC is middle of the road defensively here, but Boogie Ellis should be able to get to the charity stripe and create good looks for his teammates.

If you love analytics, you'll be all over Vermont. This line was bet down from the opener of 13.5 immediately. Vermont plays a slow pace, and does things well, similar to Virginia. Where I think Marquette is susceptible, is at the rim. Although Vermont shoots a high % here, not much of their offense comes from close 2s. While you generally like teams who create 3 point variance as upset candidates, Marquette's offense around the rim should be too much for the Catamounts to overcome. I'm not dying to back the Golden Eagles in either spot here, but they did get a pretty favorable draw to the Sweet 16 and beyond. 

My bets so far:

Furman +6.5

Texas -12.5

Gonzaga -13.5

Memphis to make Final Four +1800 (FanDuel)