Nobody knows anything

People love the NCAA Tournament because of parity. Or, what they perceive as parity. Every year we see crazy upsets and some top seeds fall, but in the end, at least one of the top few teams in the country emerges victorious. Thanks to Covid and college careers being extended, there is more parity than ever. In fact, it's shaping up to be the most competitive tournament in history, as evidenced by the unprecedented absence of a single 1 seed in the Elite Eight. Albeit not as exciting as Thursday, Friday's games left us (me in particular) with plenty of drama. 

I placed six futures bets this year. Unfortunately, Texas and Miami are facing off, but of my three remaining futures, at least one is guaranteed a Final Four berth out of the Midwest Region. Creighton also had a favor done for them with Alabama going down. All three of those teams play Sunday, so we can lock in for these two unique Saturday matchups. 

6:09pm

3 Kansas State (-2) vs 9 Florida Atlantic

For the record, I'm seeing this spread anywhere from 1.5 to 2.5 so shop around if you can. 

@MrNewYorkCityy shined against Michigan State last round and has become a star at Madison Square Garden. 19 assists is an insane stat this deep into the tournament, especially against Tom Izzo. He did, however, twist an ankle mid way through their previous contest and looked hobbled at first, but finished the game strong. I think he'll be fine, but ankle injuries are known to linger especially after the adrenaline has worn off. 

On the other side of the ball, FAU's guard play has been stellar. Davis and Martin in particular, can go for 20+ on any given night. I'd be shocked if a few of these guys weren't starting for high major programs next year. Goldin and the other post defenders also have done a great job of defending the paint while not fouling and allowing free points.

Let's dive into both team profiles here. Both teams are solid on both ends of the court, with an edge to Florida Atlantic's outside shooting ability. Kansas State is an athletic team who thrives at getting to the rim, and while FAU is good at defending dribble drives, they're subpar once you get into the paint. However, I talked about FAU's three point shooting ability against Tennessee and, despite shooting ~poorly, I think they'll be able to get plenty of good looks again here. 

The Wildcats also want to push the tempo but FAU is plenty comfortable in a faster-paced game as well as they were able to squeak out a win against Memphis (rip) and dismantle UAB in the CUSA Championships, both who also like to play at a fast pace. While I think K State should get plenty of looks at the rim, the Owl's defense rotates well and should force enough contested threes throughout this contest. 

I'm going to back the Owls of Florida Atlantic once again here, with a few player props. The first being Keyontae Johnson over 17.5 points (+100 @ BetRivers). He's a big, physical wing player who should be able to use his size to get to the rim as well as clean jumpers. The next two are Alijah Martin over 12.5 points (-115 @ FanDuel) and Johnell Davis over 14.5 (-105 @ FanDuel). While Markquis Nowell has been phenomenal all season, he is small and potentially hampered by an ankle injury. Even just from the Michigan State game, the Spartans got tons of clean looks from three because Nowell's close outs don't affect the shooter's sightlines. I'm not sure who he'll primarily be guarding, but since Feb 1st Davis has averaged 15ppg to Martin's 14ppg. With an uptempo pace and matchup advantage, I like the odds of FAU's two best players to continue scoring. 

8:49pm

3 Gonzaga vs 4 Connecticut (-2.5)

People are absolutely in love with these two teams. Uconn's efficiency metrics remain great, while Gonzaga's flawed defense keeps doing enough to get by. And, as much as you might hate him, Drew Timme is an excellent college basketball player. 

On the surface, Uconn looks like a freight train. If you watched the game, they absolutely destroyed Arkansas. They've also been a phenomenal shooting team over the last month and a half. 

Seriously. This offense has been humming. They're also an ELITE rebounding team. #2 in OReb% and 66 in DReb%. Despite these numbers, they're still with a few flaws. They do have turnover issues, but Gonzaga doesn't force many. They also foul a ton and don't get to the line at a high clip. The Bulldogs and Drew Timme should be able to take advantage here by getting the ball in the paint and attacking the rim. Their last, and potentially detrimental flaw, is the head coaching mismatch. Dan Hurley vs Mark Few should be a major advantage for Gonzaga. But, Hurley was supposed to get out coached each of the last few games and his team stepped up. 

In order for Gonzaga to compete here, they need be able to get the ball in the paint and limit 3 point opportunities for the Huskies. Given the small spread and high total of 153.5, I'm not going to have a bet pregame here. However, there should be plenty of scoring runs and lead changes so I think a live bet or two is the best way to attack either side. 

Tournament Record (7-3  +4.35 units)

Saturday's Bets:

Florida Atlantic +2.5 -110 (BetRivers)

Keyontae Johnson points over 17.5 +100 (BetRivers)

Alijah Martin points over 12.5 -115 (FanDuel) risk .5 unit

Johnell Davis points over 14.5 -104 (FanDuel) risk .5 unit

p.s. shoulda been Memphis