Overs have life!

 

Overs are alive! Markquis Nowell was shining bright in his hometown. Tennessee played a team that can actually shoot the ball. The Huskies are a freight train. and Drew Timme is everlasting. Someone told me yesterday they heard he's been in college 7 years. UCLA seriously didn't score for 10 minutes in the second half and still went over the total. I don't bet totals often, but think the same trend might continue Friday. 

6:30pm

1 Alabama (-7.5) vs 4 San Diego State

I kind of think Alabama just rolls here. SDSU has the athleticism to not get totally bullied here, but their offense is flawed. Matt Bradley is good, and can be excellent. But when you consistently take contested shots you go through multiple lulls a game. They also give up a ton of threes relative to other shots.

Alabama plays fast and hoists tons of three balls. They too, have a good defense from behind the arc, but that is inflated because of the SEC's poor splits, as I've mentioned before. 

Even with that, Alabama's length in the paint should force the Aztecs into tougher shots, and the inefficient mid range jumpers they love. Plus they have the best player on any college basketball floor in Brandon Miller, and the X factor in Quinerly. When he shoots the ball well, this team is extremely tough to beat. SDSU lost to Arizona by 17 and Arkansas by 4 in the non conference and Alabama is a much more reliable shooting and overall scoring team than both of those opponents. I haven't placed a bet yet, but likely will be on 'Bama at 7.5 or better.

1 Houston (-7.5) vs 5 Miami

Ahh the first of the Paper Tigers today. Well, Gonzaga advanced to the Elite 8 in dramatic fashion yesterday and they have a similar profile, so I guess it can happen again here. For my money, Houston has been the title favorite all year. The market has agreed, having them or Alabama as the favorite almost all season as well. The Cougars force a ton of turnovers, crash the offensive glass like crazy, and just hound you all over the court with length and athleticism. They're the #1 team on Barttorvik and Kenpom but they NEED Marcus Sasser to be healthy in order to win the title. He was back to playing 31 minutes vs Auburn and scored 22 points. Given a week of rest + recovery, he'll likely be back on track to his normal run.

While Miami is a paper tiger (all offense no defense), they have the X factor in Isaiah Wong, who should be the best player on the floor. All of their guards can shoot from anywhere, take care of the ball, and Omier looked great on the glass against Indiana. Poplar's injury worries me a little, as he provides another scoring and three point threat.

Despite thinking Houston is the #1 team in the country, they're not without flaws. They foul a lot and don't get to the line at a high rate. They also play an extremely slow tempo, leading to potentially higher variance games. If Miami can hit some shots from deep and weather the storm on the glass, I would not be shocked to see a one possession game with 4 minutes to play. The other option is that Houston's length and top down athleticism just suffocates the Hurricanes who could struggle getting easy looks. I have Miami 66-1 to cut down the nets, I hope others out there have a better number. Because of that and the reasons above, I'm staying away from a bet pregame here but am looking to jump in live if either teams gets a big lead early.

6 Creighton (-10) vs 15 Princeton

Anytime this number dips below -10, it immediately gets bet back up. Which is telling me that there are some smart people out there who think this number is right. While this means I don't necessarily think there's value in the number, there could be in a style of play. 

Creighton's most valuable player and big man, Ryan Kalkbrenner, missed a stretch earlier in the year where the Jays went through a lull. Fortunately for them, he plays >30 minutes just about every night and dominates while on the floor. Princeton doesn't really have the size to contain him, as he should see efficient looks the entire game. 

While I like Creighton as a team, they don't have the "dominate you" profile. What I mean is that they don't force turnovers, get offensive rebounds, or get to the free throw line at a high rate. They limit your opportunities, but don't get a ton of consistently easy buckets. Unfortunately Princeton profiles similarly, just with worse individual players. 

Both also have good shot selection, and play at an average pace. Since this should be a game where both sides are getting efficient shots, at a mediocre pace, I don't see value on either side here. I wanted to take the over but the idea of Princeton either slowing the pace to increase variance, or flat out having trouble scoring gives me pause.

2 Texas (-4.5) vs 3 Xavier

Ah the Musketeers, our last paper tiger of the Sweet 16. They've been a great offense all year but I think they'll actually have a bit of an issue scoring here. They're 4th in 3 point% but only shoot them at a 31.3% clip which is bottom 25th percentile nationally.  They also are middle of the road at getting to the free throw line and offensive rebounding while not forcing many turnovers. 

Xavier's defense has been their flaw all year. Not necessarily by shot selection, just scheme. Texas' guards should be able to break down the defense off the dribble and get to the rim. When Nunge steps over to help, there will either be lobs to Disu or good three point looks. Speaking of Disu, he's the key for Texas to me. Early in the year I wasn't high on this team because they had basically no inside presence. Guards do win in March, and not that you necessarily need a dominant big man, but you do need someone who is serviceable enough to give you extra possessions with offensive rebounds and can finish at the rim. 

Even glancing at the game log, you can see Dylan Disu has really stepped up and filled this role. As long as he stays out of foul trouble, Texas should be able to run up tempo and thrive in either transition or the half court. 

Barring a 50% shooting night from three for Xavier, I think Texas controls the pace and efficient scoring most of the game. I haven't made a bet yet, but will be on Texas under -5 in some capacity. I'm also considering the over here due to reasons above

Officially no bets for me, yet. Look for Alabama and Texas to be plays before tip. Let's get some points!

*Bets added

Texas -4 (Bet Online)

Texas vs Xavier Over 147.5 (Caesars)