Are any teams actually good

 

Sweet 16

If you're anything like me, this past weekend was spent yelling at TV screens, praying for threes to fall, and losing hair over meaningless turnovers. Rims were loud and unders were hitting left and right. College players found themselves in uncharted territory with the large shooting backdrops and pressure of the one-and-done format, making every play even more critical. Despite the tense atmosphere, Sunday brought some exciting late game scenarios and higher scoring games. But, as ESPN's SVP's Bad Beats segment revealed, the stress levels for fans like us were at an all-time high. Sitting on your couch can be harder than it seems

I'll go in chronological order here, touching on a few points about each matchup, and what I think about each team's chances moving forward.

3 Kansas St. vs 7 Michigan St. (-1.5)

For the record, I don't think either one of these teams can with the National Championship. However, they do have the easiest path to a Final Four berth where, as we've seen with three point variance, anything can happen. I just don't believe a team with Joey Hauser as their best player has that high of a ceiling. Same with Kansas State's Markquis Nowell. As fun as he was against Kentucky, one off shooting night and they're liable to lose by 20. 

From a metrics standpoint, this matchup is a bit of a tug of war. Whatever one team does well, the other defends well, and vice versa. For instance, K. St. can be prone to turnover issues, but MSU is 338th in the country in turnover rate on defense. MSU is an excellent three point shooting team, but Kansas St. is 12th in the country in 3 point defense. K. St thrives at getting to the free throw line, where MSU doesn't foul often. 

My pick here is Kansas State, and will likely be a bet from me. I think they'll be able to use their athleticism to give MSU trouble from deep, which leads to transition opportunities and getting to the foul line. 

8 Arkansas vs 4 Connecticut (-3.5)

Arkansas, fresh off their upset over 1 seed Kansas, looks to continue their hot streak with an even tougher test in Uconn. The Huskie's metrics have been great all year, but a deeper look into their previous game would tell a different story. Based on ShotQuality metrics, Uconn actually had a 16% chance to win their game against Saint Mary's.

While they are an excellent team, that is an insane difference from the actual result. 

Arkansas is finally healthy and peaking at the right time. Not to mention, a coaching mismatch. The hogs should be able to force turnovers. Uconn gave up a 30%, 27%, & 27% Turnover Rate against Iowa State, St. John's, and Seton Hall while losing two of those contests against teams who apply similar pressure. The Huskies advantage is on the offensive glass, where they've just demolished teams the second half of the season. 

Since both sides have exploitable mismatches, I'm likely staying away here.

9 Florida Atlantic vs 5 Tennessee (-5.5)

I like FAU here, and think they win outright. Tennessee is the #1  team in the country in Defensive Efficiency. As I stated in the previous post, the SEC was a miserable three point shooting conference. 

Quite a few poor offenses, and consequently great defenses from the three point line. A better shooting conference looks like this:

and yes, FAU shoots a ton of threes at a high percentage. They also take care of the ball. Tennessee isn't a great shooting team, but they make up for it on the offensive glass. I believe Florida Atlantic has the size and rebounding prowess to limit second chance opportunities, the guards to take care of the ball, and enough shooters to be in a close game no matter what. I'm taking the +5.5 and (around) +200 moneyline 

3 Gonzaga vs 2 UCLA (-1.5)

Ahhh the first Paper Tiger (made popular by Haslametrics and recently, Ken Barkley @LockyLockerson on Twitter) of the weekend. For those unfamiliar, "Paper Tigers" are teams who are excellent on offense, but extremely poor on defense. For example: 

Historically, these types of teams don't fare well in the NCAA Tournament. However, Gonzaga, Xavier, and Miami are all teams with this type of profile who are still alive. Maybe it's the year of the paper tiger, maybe not. 

UCLA has been excellent just about all year, but are dealing with multiple important injury concerns. Starter Jaylen Clark unfortunately tore his achilles in the PAC 12 Tournament, freshman big man Adem Bona has been playing through a shoulder injury, and David Singleton sprained his ankle last week. 

Gonzaga has played excellent as of late and has matched up with top tier teams all year, so they shouldn't be overwhelmed here. Due to some question marks on both sides of the ball, I'm staying away pregame. But this should be an excellent back and forth game with live betting opportunities throughout. 

My bets:

Kansas State +105 @Caesars

Florida Atlantic +5.5 (-110) @BetRivers

Florida Atlantic +200 @local