Mid Majors Shmid Shmajors

The people are asking, "are mid-majors bad for college basketball?". Well, the short answer is no. Postseason parity is what makes this sport great. I don't care about how news outlets market mid major teams. If you want blue bloods in the Final Four, donate to their NIL fund and stop complaining. Get gooder. These games have great players, new mismatches/adjustments for great coaches to make, and most importantly lines to bet on. Hoot hoot

6:09pm

9 Florida Atlantic vs 5 San Diego State (-2.5)

Every sentence I typed to intro this game sounded disgusting. Kind of like watching the Aztecs play, and that's coming  from a defensive guy. They've given up an incredible 17% from three over the last four games. That's unheard of. Their ability to guard every position and pressure the ball often forces either contested threes or dribble penetration, where LeDee and Mensah have been a terror on defense. 

Florida Atlantic, on the other hand, shoots threes at an extremely high and efficient rate. They also have the size to match up down low and are a solid rebounding team on both ends of the floor. Not to mention being the 35th adjusted defensive team in their own right. The differentiator here is FAU's ability to run their offense through a number of different guards. 

The past two games, SDSU has been able to use ball pressure and get the ball out of the main point guards hands from both Creighton and Alabama. This draws out each possession and forced both teams deep into the shot clock before getting into their offense. It also creates turnovers, and while FAU turned the ball over a ton against Kansas State, the style of play will be different. The Owls generally protect the ball well and are comfortable running offense in the half court. On top of that, Dusty May knows how much of a struggle half court offense is in this matchup and will want to run in transition when possible.

While it's easy to say the Aztec defense is due for regression, their best player Matt Bradley is the same. They've been able to escape a few horrendous shooting nights from him but will need at least an average shooting game to win here. I do think his prop of 11.5 is low, but with a game potentially played in the 50s I want no part of an over. 

I'm going to wait and see if I can get FAU +3 again before game time. As the market currently stands they're +2.5 everywhere and I'd play it down to +2. I expect a slower tempo, muddy game much like San Diego State's previous few. I trust Florida Atlantic's ability to generate offense and shoot the ball from deep while catching at least one possession here. Hoot hoot

8:49pm (or whenever they push the start time back to)

5 Miami vs 4 Connecticut (-5.5)

Kenpom's new #1 rated team, the UConn Huskies, are still alive! Looking at their metrics, that should come as no surprise. #3 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 11 in Defense, they steamrolled through the West Region. Every team they beat is flawed, and Miami is no different. If you read the previous few posts, Miami is an all offense no defense team who rarely ever advances past the first weekend, let alone makes it to the final four. 

The Hurricanes tallest starter is 6'7 Norchad Omier who has his hands full with 6'9 Adama Sanogo and 7'2 Donovan Clingan. UConn is an excellent rebounding team and has no problem feeding these big men in the half court. For Miami to have a chance, they absolutely need Omier staying out of foul trouble and fighting like h e double hockey sticks on the glass. 

However, Jim Larranaga is no dummy. He knows his team is undersized and doesn't defend well. Instead of trying to slow the game down and give his defense a chance, they've been going the opposite way. Playing at an even faster pace and getting as many transition opportunities as possible. 

   more possessions = less variance

It's also worth mentioning how good these Miami guards have been. Wong and Pack can score at any moment, while Jordan Miller is playing like the X factor he's always been. On the other side of the ball, and not to be totally outdone, stands Jordan Hawkins and Alex Karaban who have shot at a high level in their own right. It's worth mentioning Hawkins was on the injury report with an illness, but there didn't seem to be too much concern. 

If the Hurricanes are able to get clean transition looks by continually pushing the tempo, they absolutely can score 80+ again. Of course, the fear of Omier foul trouble and a repeat of the UConn vs Gonzaga game is possible as well. Given the circumstances, I think the spread is fine. Maybe I'll have a late add to the over of 149, but for now I'm comfortable starting on the sidelines with my turnover chain on. #allabouttheU

NCAA Tournament Bets to date:

12-6 +6.51 units

Final Four plays:

Florida Atlantic +2.5 (-110)

FAU/SDSU Under 131 (-110) BetOnline

*Miami Team Total Over 71.5 (-115) Barstool