The Diontae Johnson Story: A piece about hard work, opportunity, and redemption.

In the realm of fantasy football, it's crucial to separate fantasy bias from the true potential of a player. Diontae Johnson massively underperformed last season, but his value for the upcoming year should not be disregarded. Let's delve into reasons why, in the year 2023, Johnson is undervalued in drafts.

Digging Deeper into the Numbers:

While Johnson's mediocre performance in the previous season may raise concerns, a deeper analysis reveals what should be improved going into this year. Over the past three seasons, he’s produced a slightly below league average Contested Catch Conversion Rate and has been at best, a 50th-percentile receiver in contested catch and True Catch Rate metrics. And he did burn fantasy gamers last year.

Posting the most fantasy points below expected in 2022, Diontae Johnson was targeted 147 times with 0 touchdowns. 147 targets was 8th!! in the league among WRs last season. There’s no doubt he’s been inefficient at times, but this discrepancy is extreme and due to regress.

It may seem like I’m arguing against myself, but hear me out.

The Regression Factor:

When examining Johnson's career statistics, it becomes evident that his touchdown rate is due for positive regression. Currently sitting at 4.9% (per target), if we conservatively reduce it to a 4.5% touchdown rate, which is below his career average, it would result in an additional 39 fantasy points.  According to FantasyPros, Diontae finished 2022 WR 39 with 137.7 half PPR points. This adjustment alone would place him at WR 19, sandwiched between standout receivers DK Metcalf and Garrett Wilson. It's important to note that touchdown rate can be a volatile statistic, and we don’t necessarily want to chase touchdowns, but it remains a compelling factor that should work in Johnson's favor.

Indicators of Success:

Looking beyond the touchdown rate, Johnson's performance in other key metrics is encouraging. He ranked 2nd in Unrealized Air Yards and 13th in Target Share during the 2022 season, proving his ability to get open and earn valuable targets. Additionally, he finished the campaign with impressive rankings in Route Win Rate, Target Separation, and Yards Per Route Run, leading the Steelers wide receiving core. 

Promising Team Dynamics:

The Pittsburgh Steelers' actions in the 2023 NFL Draft signal their confidence in Johnson's abilities. Trading up in the first round for Offensive Tackle Broderick Jones solidified their offensive line, a crucial factor in providing ample time for quarterback Kenny Pickett to find open receivers. With no significant additions to the receiving corps apart from 30-year-old Allen Robinson, it's clear that Johnson remains a primary target in the Steelers' offensive scheme. Furthermore, the team's low win total in the AFC North indicates a potential for negative game script, leading to increased pass attempts from a clean pocket.

Decision:

As fantasy football managers, it's essential to recognize the value hidden beneath the surface. Diontae Johnson's disappointing performance last season should not overshadow his potential for a resounding comeback in 2023. A slight uptick in overall pass attempts, coupled with a stable target share and a regression toward the mean in production efficiency, positions Johnson as a tantalizing choice for fantasy enthusiasts. With his current average draft position (ADP) at WR 36, Diontae Johnson has the potential to SMASH this season.