Damien Harris

 Damien Harris

Damien Harris is the quintessential zero RB drafters late round running back, and exactly why I love smashing wide receivers early in drafts this season. He’s slated to share backfield work with James Cook and Nyheim Hines. Honestly, I like all of these players upside and am happy walking away from a draft with any of the three. At cost, however, I like Damien Harris at his current range slightly more, and here’s why:

Rushing Ability

Before a hamstring injury last year, Harris outscored Rhamondre Stevenson, particularly due to his short yardage ability to score and create yards. After week 5, Rhamondre took over the backfield with 65% of the team’s RB carries through the end of the season. He was very good, and Damien Harris was hobbled by a thigh injury midway through the year. 

If we look back at his 2021 campaign, however, Damien Harris was one of the top running backs in the NFL in Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE) and explosive run rate. 

Harris is also 26 years old, so just onto the wrong side of the age apex, but still within a median productive age range. This tells me he can still be a productive and reliable running back despite transitioning into a new offensive system. 

https://apexfantasyleagues.com/peak-age-nfl-running-back/

The Buffalo Bills did draft James Cook in the second round of last year’s NFL draft, but just didn’t quite fit right into their offensive schemes last season. Despite being a smooth receiver, they brought in Nyheim Hines to, theoretically, help as a satellite back. While Hines only drew 9 targets with the Bills last year, it was actually Devin Singletary who led the backfield in targets with 53, followed by Cook’s 32. 

In 2022, James Cook also had 0 goal line carries and a juke rate outside the top 20 despite leading the league in breakaway run rate (among qualified players). He ran well when the offensive scheme and blocking allowed him to, but struggled when forced to create his own success.  

Rushing Opportunity

Anytime you have a path to being the RB1 in one of the league’s top offenses, your upside increases. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills create an increased amount of scoring opportunities compared to last year’s New England Patriots. In fact, this is where I see Damien Harris’ role separating himself from the rest of this backfield. 

Last year Ian Hartitz (PFF) wrote about quarterbacks running less as they age. The below table shows that around years 4-5 is when the rushing production and opportunity starts to decline for these quarterbacks.

Inherently this makes sense. Right around this time is when many of them are signing major contracts, as well as using their experience and comfortability in the pocket to make better downfield decisions. Personally, I don’t think their scrambling ability declines during this time. More so how plays are designed and the kinds of rushing attempts coaches want to allow for their star quarterbacks. 

  

There have been numerous articles coming out of Buffalo this offseason stating Josh Allen needs to run less and how they want to take some of the physical load off their star QB. Even Josh himself said he needs to “adapt and change” his playstyle as the years pass. 

Which leads us back to Damien Harris. He is a proven running back who can succeed between the tackles and in short yardage situations, the kind of opportunities the Bills coaching staff want to take away from Josh Allen. The quarterback scrambles and creativity will still be there, but goal line carries, base down run plays, and short yardage situations are likely to be handed off this season, where Damien Harris is just the guy. 18 of his 20 career TDs have come from inside the 20 yard line, exactly where the majority of opportunities have opened up in this offense. All 2022 running backs with 10+ touchdowns on the ground all were within the top 24 fantasy RBs by end of season.

At Cost

Like I mentioned in the beginning of this article, I like Harris at cost. The usage is a question mark, and you have to wonder if he can get back to that efficiency from 2021. Going as RB 38 on Underdog, he has a reasonable path to being the RB1 in Buffalo and a top 24 running back in all of fantasy football this season. 

Ask yourself, would you rather have Tony Pollard and Juju Smith-Schuster or CeeDee Lamb and Damien Harris? Personally, I prefer to have a stud wide receiver and take shots on high upside running backs, like Damien Harris, in the later rounds to maximize scoring potential and win my league.