Off Night

I finally got around to reviewing some of my betting numbers from this past season, which I'm going to hit on here. I will say that this year was one of the most frustrating betting seasons in recent memory. Countless bets were followed by line movement in my favor and positive CLV, only for the on-court performance to be way outside of a team's norm. However, betting college hoops can be an absolute grind given the variance of three-point shooting, schedule factors, and a multitude of other reasons. Albeit small, I'm happy to have finished in the green across 276 bets being up 11.25 units. If you're interested in looking back at any bets, feel free to glance here .  Yeah, I'm aware I stink when it comes to CBB totals. A few of those losses weren't even in the same ballpark as the final score and my projected pace. Props were also banned in Ohio midway through the season, so I wouldn't expect to see much of either next year. I did well betting sides, general...

  Damien Harris Damien Harris is the quintessential zero RB drafters late round running back, and exactly why I love smashing wide receivers early in drafts this season. He’s slated to share backfield work with James Cook and Nyheim Hines. Honestly, I like all of these players upside and am happy walking away from a draft with any of the three. At cost, however, I like Damien Harris at his current range slightly more, and here’s why: Rushing Ability Before a hamstring injury last year, Harris outscored Rhamondre Stevenson, particularly due to his short yardage ability to score and create yards. After week 5, Rhamondre took over the backfield with 65% of the team’s RB carries through the end of the season. He was very good, and Damien Harris was hobbled by a thigh injury midway through the year.  If we look back at his 2021 campaign, however, Damien Harris was one of the top running backs in the NFL in Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE) and explosive run rate.  Harris is ...

In the realm of fantasy football, it's crucial to separate fantasy bias from the true potential of a player. Diontae Johnson massively underperformed last season, but his value for the upcoming year should not be disregarded. Let's delve into reasons why, in the year 2023, Johnson is undervalued in drafts. Digging Deeper into the Numbers: While Johnson's mediocre performance in the previous season may raise concerns, a deeper analysis reveals what should be improved going into this year. Over the past three seasons, he’s produced a slightly below league average Contested Catch Conversion Rate and has been at best, a 50th-percentile receiver in contested catch and True Catch Rate metrics. And he did burn fantasy gamers last year. Posting the most fantasy points below expected in 2022, Diontae Johnson was targeted 147 times with 0 touchdowns. 147 targets was 8th!! in the league among WRs last season. There’s no doubt he’s been inefficient at times, but this discrepancy is ext...

The people are asking, "are mid-majors bad for college basketball?". Well, the short answer is no. Postseason parity is what makes this sport great. I don't care about how news outlets market mid major teams. If you want blue bloods in the Final Four, donate to their NIL fund and stop complaining. Get gooder. These games have great players, new mismatches/adjustments for great coaches to make, and most importantly lines to bet on. Hoot hoot 6:09pm 9 Florida Atlantic vs 5 San Diego State (-2.5) Every sentence I typed to intro this game sounded disgusting. Kind of like watching the Aztecs play, and that's coming  from a defensive guy. They've given up an incredible 17% from three over the last four games. That's unheard of. Their ability to guard every position and pressure the ball often forces either contested threes or dribble penetration, where LeDee and Mensah have been a terror on defense.  Florida Atlantic, on the other hand, shoots threes at an extremely...

 Florida Atlantic makes the Final Four. Woo. A 9 seed wow so crazy they won a lot of games this year wow. Shoulda been Memphis.  I have been crying jordan for a week now. Thankfully, I've been riding FAU to the promised land since that fateful day in March. Also, UConn is a WAGON. Send in the National Guard, they must be stopped. 4 games left and plenty of edges to be found. Let's get back to work. Job's not finished 2:20pm 5 San Diego State vs 6 Creighton (-2) This is another line that's between 1.5 and 2.5, so shop around.  I like Creighton here. Really for one main reason. This man: Ryan Kalkbrenner has been good all year but next level these past three games.  ShotQuality's most efficient scorer the first two rounds. But it's his defense I love here. Overall, Creighton is 28th nationally in 2 point % defense and gives up close twos at a 32.8% rate. They also take away the three ball well. Not that the Aztecs necessarily thrive on their three point shooting, ...

People love the NCAA Tournament because of parity. Or, what they perceive as parity. Every year we see crazy upsets and some top seeds fall, but in the end, at least one of the top few teams in the country emerges victorious. Thanks to Covid and college careers being extended, there is more parity than ever. In fact, it's shaping up to be the most competitive tournament in history, as evidenced by the unprecedented absence of a single 1 seed in the Elite Eight. Albeit not as exciting as Thursday, Friday's games left us (me in particular) with plenty of drama.  I placed six futures bets this year. Unfortunately, Texas and Miami are facing off, but of my three remaining futures, at least one is guaranteed a Final Four berth out of the Midwest Region. Creighton also had a favor done for them with Alabama going down. All three of those teams play Sunday, so we can lock in for these two unique Saturday matchups.  6:09pm 3 Kansas State (-2) vs 9 Florida Atlantic For the record, I...