Off Night

The people are asking, "are mid-majors bad for college basketball?". Well, the short answer is no. Postseason parity is what makes this sport great. I don't care about how news outlets market mid major teams. If you want blue bloods in the Final Four, donate to their NIL fund and stop complaining. Get gooder. These games have great players, new mismatches/adjustments for great coaches to make, and most importantly lines to bet on. Hoot hoot 6:09pm 9 Florida Atlantic vs 5 San Diego State (-2.5) Every sentence I typed to intro this game sounded disgusting. Kind of like watching the Aztecs play, and that's coming  from a defensive guy. They've given up an incredible 17% from three over the last four games. That's unheard of. Their ability to guard every position and pressure the ball often forces either contested threes or dribble penetration, where LeDee and Mensah have been a terror on defense.  Florida Atlantic, on the other hand, shoots threes at an extremely...

 Florida Atlantic makes the Final Four. Woo. A 9 seed wow so crazy they won a lot of games this year wow. Shoulda been Memphis.  I have been crying jordan for a week now. Thankfully, I've been riding FAU to the promised land since that fateful day in March. Also, UConn is a WAGON. Send in the National Guard, they must be stopped. 4 games left and plenty of edges to be found. Let's get back to work. Job's not finished 2:20pm 5 San Diego State vs 6 Creighton (-2) This is another line that's between 1.5 and 2.5, so shop around.  I like Creighton here. Really for one main reason. This man: Ryan Kalkbrenner has been good all year but next level these past three games.  ShotQuality's most efficient scorer the first two rounds. But it's his defense I love here. Overall, Creighton is 28th nationally in 2 point % defense and gives up close twos at a 32.8% rate. They also take away the three ball well. Not that the Aztecs necessarily thrive on their three point shooting, ...

People love the NCAA Tournament because of parity. Or, what they perceive as parity. Every year we see crazy upsets and some top seeds fall, but in the end, at least one of the top few teams in the country emerges victorious. Thanks to Covid and college careers being extended, there is more parity than ever. In fact, it's shaping up to be the most competitive tournament in history, as evidenced by the unprecedented absence of a single 1 seed in the Elite Eight. Albeit not as exciting as Thursday, Friday's games left us (me in particular) with plenty of drama.  I placed six futures bets this year. Unfortunately, Texas and Miami are facing off, but of my three remaining futures, at least one is guaranteed a Final Four berth out of the Midwest Region. Creighton also had a favor done for them with Alabama going down. All three of those teams play Sunday, so we can lock in for these two unique Saturday matchups.  6:09pm 3 Kansas State (-2) vs 9 Florida Atlantic For the record, I...

  Overs are alive! Markquis Nowell was shining bright in his hometown. Tennessee played a team that can actually shoot the ball. The Huskies are a freight train. and Drew Timme is everlasting. Someone told me yesterday they heard he's been in college 7 years. UCLA seriously didn't score for 10 minutes in the second half and still went over the total. I don't bet totals often, but think the same trend might continue Friday.  6:30pm 1 Alabama (-7.5) vs 4 San Diego State I kind of think Alabama just rolls here. SDSU has the athleticism to not get totally bullied here, but their offense is flawed. Matt Bradley is good, and can be excellent. But when you consistently take contested shots you go through multiple lulls a game. They also give up a ton of threes relative to other shots. Alabama plays fast and hoists tons of three balls. They too, have a good defense from behind the arc, but that is inflated because of the SEC's poor splits, as I've mentioned before.  Even wi...

  Sweet 16 If you're anything like me, this past weekend was spent yelling at TV screens, praying for threes to fall, and losing hair over meaningless turnovers. Rims were loud and unders were hitting left and right.  College players found themselves in uncharted territory with the large shooting backdrops and pressure of the one-and-done format, making every play even more critical. Despite the tense atmosphere, Sunday brought some exciting late game scenarios and higher scoring games. But, as ESPN's SVP's Bad Beats segment revealed, the stress levels for fans like us were at an all-time high. Sitting on your couch can be harder than it seems I'll go in chronological order here, touching on a few points about each matchup, and what I think about each team's chances moving forward. 3 Kansas St. vs 7 Michigan St. (-1.5) For the record, I don't think either one of these teams can with the National Championship. However, they do have the easiest path to a Final F...

  Reminder to join my March Madness pool  HERE  and  PAY HERE MIDWEST 1. Houston (-19.5) vs Northern Kentucky 8. Iowa vs Auburn (-1) Marcus Sasser's injury is the #1 element I'm monitoring over the next few days. Houston has tons of athleticism and length. They pressure the ball and attack the offensive glass like crazy. Betting against them is so frustrating because they just don't stop attacking, which winds up with easy buckets off turnovers and offensive boards. A healthy Houston team is, and should be one of the two favorites to make the final four. Despite their athletic makeup, without Sasser they lack the ability to create off the dribble and open looks for the rest of the offense. They also have a flaw, in that because they're so aggressive, they foul a ton. They also play a slow pace with means less possessions. Remember the formula: Less possessions = more variance I don't believe any teams in this pod can take advantage of Houston's weaknesses, and e...

The 68 team field is set, and the good news is that no one has to do any work! As nearly every single college basketball piece will tell you, if a team isn't top 25 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom , they have a next to 0%  chance to win the National Championship.  As cute as the ever popular KenPom fact may be, it has never led to a perfect bracket. My little sister who hasn't watched a college basketball game in ~8 years, is just as likely to predict the perfect bracket as the great Joe Lunardi.  Instead of searching for perfection, I'm going to give you a few nuggets on each first round + pod and what to expect from each team. As the description says, I'm no expert. Just a guy who watches a ton of hoops. All of my bets are at the bottom.  Reminder to join my March Madness pool HERE  and PAY HERE (stats from  BartTorvik  and Haslametrics ) Let's start down SOUTH 1. Alabama (~-25 ) vs Texas A&M CC/SE Missouri St 8. Maryland...